Bolton set to "Unsmoke" by 2030, new research predicts

England will not see the end of smoking until after 2050 according to new research conducted by Frontier Economics, commissioned by Philip Morris Limited (PML). The report finds that there is now a gap of almost 30 years separating the first and last parts of England predicted to go smoke-free.

The findings also show the Government will miss its "smoke free" target of 2030 by almost a decade.

An interactive "unsmoking" map, which can be found at https://www.smokefreefuture.co.uk/UNSMOKE-England/, shows the areas of England predicted to go smoke-free first and those forecast still to be smoking after 2050:

• In the North West, Bolton is set to go smoke-free in 2030. Areas in the region predicted to go smoke-free sooner include Wirral (2027), Sefton (2029), Blackburn and Darwen and Manchester (both 2029).
• The last areas to "Unsmoke" in the North West are Blackpool (2040), St. Helens and Halton (both after 2040).
• There is over a 13-year difference between the first and last parts of the region to go smoke-free.
• Over 1 in 5 local authorities in England will not be smoke-free until after 2050.
• Half of local authorities in England will still have prevalence rates above the Government's 5% target by 2030.

The report predicts that the Government will miss its "smoke-free" goal of 2030 by around a decade, unless further action is taken. To meet its target, a total of over four million smokers would need to quit or switch to a less harmful alternative - an extra 2.3 million (or 200,000 every year) over and above existing forecasts for the next 11 years.

Mark MacGregor, Director of External Affairs at PML, believes a rapid increase in the awareness and use of smoke-free alternatives will be vital to help achieve a smoke-free society faster:

"Over 4 million smokers need to be persuaded to quit altogether or switch to a less harmful alternative if the Government is to realise its smoke-free ambition. Critical to achieving that goal will be ensuring that smokers in the North West have the facts about alternatives, like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco. Currently, too many smokers believe that the alternatives are as harmful as smoking or are simply unaware that they exist."

The research also highlights a variety of measures and policy interventions that could accelerate the decline in cigarette smokers to 5% by 2030. These include a rapid increase in the number of smokers switching to smoke-free alternatives and reversing the decline in smokers quitting through NHS Stop Smoking Services.

The report found that, since 2012, smoking in England has declined at almost twice the rate seen between 1993 and 2011, and the downward trend in smoking prevalence is likely due in part to greater use of e-cigarettes. However, despite there being 3.2 million e-cigarette users in Great Britain, the growth of vaping is now slowing. Data from ASH indicates that there were only 300,000 new vapers in 2018 in Great Britain, compared with 800,000 in 2042

Table 1: Dates that Upper Tier Local Authorities in the North West will 'UNSMOKE'

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