Bolton set to "Unsmoke" by 2030, new research predicts

16 Sep 2019 03:26
Published by: Kian French

England will not see the end of smoking until after 2050 according to new research conducted by Frontier Economics, commissioned by Philip Morris Limited (PML). The report finds that there is now a gap of almost 30 years separating the first and last parts of England predicted to go smoke-free.

The findings also show the Government will miss its "smoke free" target of 2030 by almost a decade.

An interactive "unsmoking" map, which can be found at https://www.smokefreefuture.co.uk/UNSMOKE-England/, shows the areas of England predicted to go smoke-free first and those forecast still to be smoking after 2050:

  • In the North West, Bolton is set to go smoke-free in 2030. Areas in the region predicted to go smoke-free sooner include Wirral (2027), Sefton (2029), Blackburn and Darwen and Manchester (both 2029).
  • The last areas to "Unsmoke" in the North West are Blackpool (2040), St. Helens and Halton (both after 2040).
  • There is over a 13-year difference between the first and last parts of the region to go smoke-free.
  • Over 1 in 5 local authorities in England will not be smoke-free until after 2050.
  • Half of local authorities in England will still have prevalence rates above the Government's 5% target by 2030.

The report predicts that the Government will miss its "smoke-free" goal of 2030 by around a decade, unless further action is taken. To meet its target, a total of over four million smokers would need to quit or switch to a less harmful alternative - an extra 2.3 million (or 200,000 every year) over and above existing forecasts for the next 11 years.

Mark MacGregor, Director of External Affairs at PML, believes a rapid increase in the awareness and use of smoke-free alternatives will be vital to help achieve a smoke-free society faster:

"Over 4 million smokers need to be persuaded to quit altogether or switch to a less harmful alternative if the Government is to realise its smoke-free ambition. Critical to achieving that goal will be ensuring that smokers in the North West have the facts about alternatives, like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco. Currently, too many smokers believe that the alternatives are as harmful as smoking or are simply unaware that they exist."

The research also highlights a variety of measures and policy interventions that could accelerate the decline in cigarette smokers to 5% by 2030. These include a rapid increase in the number of smokers switching to smoke-free alternatives and reversing the decline in smokers quitting through NHS Stop Smoking Services.

The report found that, since 2012, smoking in England has declined at almost twice the rate seen between 1993 and 2011, and the downward trend in smoking prevalence is likely due in part to greater use of e-cigarettes. However, despite there being 3.2 million e-cigarette users in Great Britain, the growth of vaping is now slowing. Data from ASH indicates that there were only 300,000 new vapers in 2018 in Great Britain, compared with 800,000 in 2042

Table 1: Dates that Upper Tier Local Authorities in the North West will 'UNSMOKE'

Upper Tier Local Authorities –North West

2018 Smoking Prevalence Rate

Date that Smoking Prevalence falls below 5% threshold

Date that Smoking Prevalence falls below 0% threshold

Ranking - by earliest date and then lowest smoking prevalence

Wirral

11.95%

2023

2027

6

Sefton

11.14%

2024

2029

14

Blackburn with Darwen

16.20%

2026

2029

18

Manchester

17.16%

2026

2029

19

Bolton

15.27%

2026

2030

26

Cheshire East

8.70%

2024

2031

27

Cumbria

13.65%

2026

2031

30

Liverpool

14.73%

2027

2032

35

Knowsley

18.06%

2028

2032

38

Rochdale

16.21%

2029

2033

47

Warrington

10.47%

2027

2034

50

Lancashire

14.21%

2029

2034

52

Wigan

15.55%

2029

2034

54

Bury

15.98%

2029

2034

55

Tameside

17.02%

2030

2035

61

Cheshire West and Chester

13.78%

2030

2036

64

Stockport

13.26%

2030

2037

70

Oldham

18.03%

2033

2038

77

Salford

19.97%

2033

2038

79

Trafford

13.55%

2031

2039

83

Blackpool

21.14%

2035

2040

90

St. Helens

15.81%

2035

After 2040

105

Halton

17.94%

2037

After 2040

113

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